WHY M23’s Kivu Withdrawal Could Shape Congo Peace

A string of village withdrawals by M23/AFC fighters over the past few days in North and South Kivu has generated speculation about whether the Congolese government’s diplomacy is finally bearing fruit. Security sources quoted by Radio Okapi and the North Kivu governor said the rebels pulled out of villages such as Lunyasenge, Bukununu, Musiya, Katondi and Kipese and were now camped around Alimbongo, Kirumba and Kanyabayonga. 

The governor urged calm, describing the movement as part of implementing the U.S.-brokered peace accords. This narrative is echoed by local reports that portray the pull-back as tactical rather than a rout.

Diplomatically, the timing aligns with renewed efforts to enforce the Washington Accords. A joint declaration issued on 18 March after DRC–Rwanda talks in Washington commits both sides to respect each other’s sovereignty and to disengage Rwandan forces from eastern DRC, while U.S. sanctions on Rwandan officials underscored the cost of non‑compliance.

Qatar has hosted multiple rounds of direct talks, and in November 2025 the two sides signed a Doha framework agreement covering eight protocols for peace. U.S. envoy Massad Boulos has cautioned that these steps amount to a process, not a “light switch,” and that progress on prisoner exchanges and ceasefire monitoring has been slow.

Such diplomacy has not yet dislodged M23/AFC from its urban strongholds. The rebels seized Goma in January 2025 and later expanded across North and South Kivu; one year on, banks remain shut and residents must cross into Rwanda for basic services.

They also captured Bukavu and other towns, setting up governance structures that point to long‑term ambitions. Anadolu Agency reports that M23 controls significant territory, including Goma and Bukavu. Without regaining these cities, any claim of a definitive government victory would be premature.

For President Félix Tshisekedi, persuading M23/AFC to return occupied zones without a costly offensive would mark a diplomatic success. Kinshasa has hailed U.S. measures against Rwanda as reinforcing respect for DRC sovereignty. Yet the rebels allege continued attacks by government forces, and their final destination after the current pull‑back remains unknown.

Observers warn that previous peace processes have not addressed the root causes of the conflict and that implementation will require sustained engagement. Whether the withdrawals presage a lasting peace or simply a tactical pause may hinge on the next diplomatic round rumoured to shift from Doha and Washington to Switzerland and on whether M23’s leaders are prepared to relinquish control of Goma and Bukavu.