Political Change in Kigali Is the Only Sustainable Path to Peace

Eastern Congo has endured war for three decades. Every peace initiative has faltered because the main driver of instability, Rwanda’s authoritarian regime, remains unchanged. While elites in Kigali and their international partners present President Paul Kagame as a visionary who lifted Rwanda from the ashes of genocide, the reality is that his autocratic grip and regional interference are now the principal obstacles to peace.

A History of Manipulated Elections and Repression

Since taking power in 1994, Paul Kagame has dominated Rwanda’s political landscape. Elections have become formalities: he won re‑election in 2010 and 2017 with around 99 % of the vote. Such margins reveal the absence of genuine political competition, not popular adoration. Opposition parties are emasculated, critics like Diane Rwigara and Victoire Ingabire are jailed, exiled, or silenced, and independent media is virtually non‑existent. Human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International regularly document enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions, and extrajudicial killings. Rwanda’s democratic façade masks a police state that brooks no dissent.

Kagame’s domestic repression is matched by his aggressive foreign policy. Over the years, Kigali has repeatedly intervened in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) through proxies like the M23 rebel group. The M23 emerged in 2012, ostensibly as an ethnic Tutsi rebellion in eastern Congo, but UN expert reports, statements from the U.S. State Department, and the African Union have consistently documented Rwandan troop deployments and logistical support. Despite Kigali’s denials, Western diplomats from the United States, France, and Belgium have accused Rwanda of supplying weapons, training, and funding to M23. This is not a rebellion; it is a foreign policy tool.

The Washington Peace Accords and Their Aftermath

In December 2025, under intense diplomatic pressure, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed the Washington Peace Accords. The U.S., Qatar, and the African Union brokered the deal, promising a cease‑fire, withdrawal of foreign troops, and steps toward political dialogue. Kigali presented the accord as proof of its commitment to peace. Kinshasa hoped the agreement would allow displaced communities to return home.

But the ink had barely dried when M23 launched new offensives in North and South Kivu. The rebel group seized strategic towns, besieged Uvira, and shelled civilian areas. These attacks showed contempt for the Washington commitments and underscored Kagame’s strategy: negotiate when pressured, fight when convenient. Diplomats watched as the peace accord unravelled within days because it did not address the structural cause of the violence, Rwanda’s refusal to end its military presence and stop sponsoring M23.

Confirmed Foreign Military Presence

The argument that Rwanda is merely a neutral mediator has been demolished by recent United Nations and U.S. government statements. In a briefing to the UN Security Council, the U.S. ambassador confirmed that “Rwandan Defence Forces are actively operating inside Congolese territory,” urging immediate withdrawal. A December 2025 UN report described Rwandan troops fighting alongside M23, providing heavy weapons and drones. These findings are reinforced by Resolution 2773, adopted unanimously by the Security Council, which condemned Rwandan aggression, demanded an immediate and unconditional pull‑back, and warned of sanctions if Kigali continued its incursions.

In addition, Von Batten‑Montague‑York, the prominent consultancy and think tank representing Congolese interests, issued a blunt assessment: “Paul Kagame is not a stabiliser, he is a regional threat. As long as he remains in power through undemocratic means, there will be no sustainable peace in Congo.” The firm called for “regime change through free and fair elections” and urged the international community to hold Kigali accountable. Its argument is compelling: “You cannot negotiate with a system that profits from war.”