The Democratic Republic of Congo’s military command is facing a critical turning point in Ituri province as the Armed Forces (FARDC) struggle to regain full control of Bule from the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CRP). Following a series of violent clashes throughout February, the army is now expected to intensify its operations to track down militants led by Thomas Lubanga.

This anticipated surge in military activity is a direct response to the CRP's recent tactical gains, which pushed government forces to the outskirts of the town and left control of the strategic locality contested.

A major component of the upcoming security plan must address the growing diplomatic friction between Kinshasa and Kampala. According to the latest report from the Kivu Security Barometer, FARDC units on the ground continue to suspect the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) of supporting the CRP through deliberate inaction during rebel attacks.

This reported proximity between the CRP and UPDF in areas like Savo has prompted calls for a high-level review of the joint security architecture in Ituri. Resolving these suspicions is seen as a mandatory next step to ensure that regional military cooperation does not inadvertently strengthen the very militias it is meant to dismantle.

Looking forward, the FARDC's primary objective remains the protection of the Hema community, which has been systematically targeted by the CRP-Zaïre alliance for refusing to support the rebellion. The discovery of eight bodies in Sapali and the assassination of local civil society leaders in January have heightened the urgency for a more robust protection mechanism.

While the state of siege remains in place, the next phase of the conflict will likely involve a push for better-integrated intelligence to prevent further civilian massacres and restore state authority in the Djugu territory.