Analyst says China led naval drills reveal SA navy’s limited readiness

A leading South African defence analyst says a China‑led naval exercise planned for this month exposes the modest state of the country’s naval capability. Helmoed Römer Heitman, speaking to broadcaster 702 Drive, said the Will for Peace 2026 drills involving China, Russia and Iran will largely consist of simple manoeuvres and communications rather than high‑level combat training.

His comments come as South Africa prepares to host the BRICS‑Plus maritime exercise off its coast from 9 to 16 January 2026, highlighting both the country’s diplomatic balancing act and its ageing fleet.

Details of the exercise

The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) formally announced on 30 December 2025 that it will host Will for Peace 2026 in local waters. The event previously known as Exercise Mosi is led by the People’s Republic of China and includes Russia and Iran.

According to the Department of Defence, the exercise will focus on joint maritime safety operations, interoperability drills and protection of sea‑borne trade routes. Officials said the theme, “Joint Actions to Ensure the Safety of Shipping and Maritime Economic Activities,” was chosen to signal the peaceful intent of the drills. The SANDF emphasised that further details would be released later.

Analyst’s assessment of readiness

Heitman welcomed South Africa’s participation but stressed that the navy can only manage basic naval operations. In an interview on 702 Drive (first reported by Eyewitness News), he said the forthcoming exercise will effectively be a “passage exercise” a low‑intensity drill focused on communications and simple manoeuvres rather than complex war‑fighting. He argued that this reflects South Africa’s limited naval capacity.

The analyst’s concerns stem from the state of the SA Navy’s fleet. DefenceWeb reports that three of the navy’s four Valour‑class frigates and two of its three submarines are overdue for mid‑life refits because of sustained underfunding.

SAS Amatola underwent only a partial refit in 2015, while the SAS Isandlwana and SAS Spioenkop have not been funded for the necessary upgrades. SAS Mendi is the only frigate still considered seaworthy, yet its refit is also unfunded. Without refurbishments, officials warn that frigate capability could disappear in the medium term.

Heitman applauded the Amatola’s recent achievements the ship sailed 22,000 nautical miles over 134 days during the 2024/25 financial year but cautioned that upgrades are essential.

He told DefenceWeb that he would not send any of South Africa’s frigates into combat with “existing sensors and close‑to‑timex missiles” and noted that the navy has a spiral‑upgrade plan that remains unfunded. The analyst argued that the first priority is to get vessels seaworthy so crews can build cohesion, after which modernisation must follow.

Additional capability gaps

The SA Navy’s challenges are compounded by limited maritime air surveillance. In late 2025 the Air Force withdrew its ageing C‑47‑TP maritime patrol aircraft due to maintenance problems and lack of spares. A parliamentary reply to opposition MP Chris Hattingh revealed that planned replacement projects (Saucepan, Metsi and Pelican) have stalled because funding is unavailable.

Defence Web notes that the withdrawal of these aircraft leaves the air force “stranded” in terms of maritime patrols. Without maritime patrol aircraft, the navy’s ability to detect threats and coordinate operations over South Africa’s extensive coastline is further weakened as it was reported by Eye Witness News.

Political concerns and reactions

The choice of partners has drawn criticism at home. Will for Peace 2026 is being led by China and includes Russia and Iran two countries under Western sanctions. Democratic Alliance MP Chris Hattingh argues that hosting sanctioned states undermines South Africa’s stated policy of non‑alignment and could strain relations with democratic trading partners.

He noted that the drill appears to be a continuation of Exercise Mosi III under a different name and warned that the government has not briefed Parliament on the costs and legal status of the exercise.

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Context and significance

South Africa has a history of taking part in multilateral naval exercises, including Mosi‑I and Mosi‑II with China and Russia. Analysts say such engagements help the navy maintain basic operational skills and international relationships. However, years of budget cuts and deferred maintenance have eroded its ability to project force.

In January 2026, the Department of Defence acknowledged that continued refit delays will cause frigate and submarine capability to disappear in the coming financial years if funding is not found. The withdrawal of maritime patrol aircraft similarly underscores the broader decline in South African maritime capability.

Will for Peace 2026 therefore highlights both the strategic ambition and operational vulnerability of South Africa’s navy. While the exercise offers an opportunity to foster cooperation with BRICS‑Plus partners, experts like Heitman argue that without significant investment in refits and upgrades, the SA Navy will remain constrained to basic navigation and communication drills rather than the advanced war‑fighting capabilities required to secure the country’s maritime domain.

Source: Eye Witness News