Analyst says China led naval drills reveal SA navy’s limited readiness

A leading South African defence analyst says a China‑led naval exercise planned for this month exposes the modest state of the country’s naval capability. Helmoed Römer Heitman, speaking to broadcaster 702 Drive, said the Will for Peace 2026 drills involving China, Russia and Iran will largely consist of simple manoeuvres and communications rather than high‑level combat training.

His comments come as South Africa prepares to host the BRICS‑Plus maritime exercise off its coast from 9 to 16 January 2026, highlighting both the country’s diplomatic balancing act and its ageing fleet.

Details of the exercise

The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) formally announced on 30 December 2025 that it will host Will for Peace 2026 in local waters. The event previously known as Exercise Mosi is led by the People’s Republic of China and includes Russia and Iran.

According to the Department of Defence, the exercise will focus on joint maritime safety operations, interoperability drills and protection of sea‑borne trade routes. Officials said the theme, “Joint Actions to Ensure the Safety of Shipping and Maritime Economic Activities,” was chosen to signal the peaceful intent of the drills. The SANDF emphasised that further details would be released later.

Analyst’s assessment of readiness

Heitman welcomed South Africa’s participation but stressed that the navy can only manage basic naval operations. In an interview on 702 Drive (first reported by Eyewitness News), he said the forthcoming exercise will effectively be a “passage exercise” a low‑intensity drill focused on communications and simple manoeuvres rather than complex war‑fighting. He argued that this reflects South Africa’s limited naval capacity.

The analyst’s concerns stem from the state of the SA Navy’s fleet. DefenceWeb reports that three of the navy’s four Valour‑class frigates and two of its three submarines are overdue for mid‑life refits because of sustained underfunding.

SAS Amatola underwent only a partial refit in 2015, while the SAS Isandlwana and SAS Spioenkop have not been funded for the necessary upgrades. SAS Mendi is the only frigate still considered seaworthy, yet its refit is also unfunded. Without refurbishments, officials warn that frigate capability could disappear in the medium term.

Heitman applauded the Amatola’s recent achievements the ship sailed 22,000 nautical miles over 134 days during the 2024/25 financial year but cautioned that upgrades are essential.