Africa may be on track to split into two separate landmasses sooner than previously expected, according to new research examining tectonic activity in eastern Africa.

The study, published in Nature Communications, focuses on the Turkana Rift, a 500-kilometer stretch across Kenya and Ethiopia that forms part of the larger East African Rift System, where three tectonic plates meet. Scientists have long known that these plates are slowly pulling apart, a process that could eventually create a new ocean between two future continents.

But researchers now say the process appears more advanced than previously believed.

“We found that rifting in this zone is more advanced and the crust is thinner than anyone had recognized,” said lead author Christian Rowan, a Ph.D. student in Earth and environmental sciences at Columbia University. “Eastern Africa has progressed further in the rifting process than previously thought.”

According to the study, the Earth’s crust at the center of the Turkana Rift is significantly thinner than surrounding regions, measuring about 13 kilometers deep compared to more than 35 kilometers in nearby areas. Scientists describe this as “necking,” a sign that the crust is weakening as tectonic forces pull it apart.

To reach their conclusions, Rowan and his team combined field observations with high-resolution seismic reflection, a technique that uses sound waves to map structures beneath the Earth’s surface.

The findings also suggest that earlier rifting events may have already weakened the crust in the region, accelerating the current process. Rowan noted that this challenges traditional assumptions about how continents break apart.

The area may now be approaching what researchers describe as a “critical threshold.” Anne Bécel, a geophysicist at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and co-author of the study, said the rift is entering a more advanced stage of separation.

Still, scientists emphasize that the process will take time. The rift first began forming around 45 million years ago, and it could take several million more years before the continent fully splits.

For now, the research offers a clearer picture of a slow but powerful geological process, one that, over time, could reshape the map of Africa.