Kagame's Tricks Backfire: Caught in His Own Contradictions

The cancellation of the Luanda Tripartite Summit, initially scheduled for Sunday, December 15, 2024, highlights a critical moment in regional diplomacy. This summit, intended to bring together Presidents Félix Tshisekedi (DRC), Paul Kagame (Rwanda), and João Lourenço (Angola), was postponed due to a sudden refusal by Paul Kagame to attend.

The decision, accompanied by a last-minute demand for direct dialogue between Kinshasa and the armed group M23, was deemed unacceptable by the DRC. For Kinshasa, this maneuver represents a deliberate attempt to derail the Luanda Peace Process.

According to an official statement from Erik Nyindu Kibambe, Director of the Presidential Communication Unit in the DRC, this new condition jeopardizes key advancements, including the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from Congolese territory and the disarmament of armed groups like the FDLR. Observers note that Rwanda's stance risks diplomatic isolation and increases pressure from both regional and international actors.

The Kigali Contradiction

Rwanda’s sudden precondition exposes inconsistencies in its diplomatic discourse. President Kagame previously insisted that the M23 is a Congolese issue, stating in August 2024:"If you admit that the M23 are Congolese, why does the DRC not resolve the problem of the M23? If they have chosen the path of military force to resolve this problem, that is their problem and not mine."

However, Kigali’s current demand for dialogue between the DRC and the M23 contradicts these claims and reveals strategic links between Rwanda and the armed group. Kenyan President William Ruto echoed this sentiment in May 2024:"The M23, are the members of this group Rwandans or Congolese? If they are Congolese, how does this become a Rwandan problem?"

This shift undermines Rwanda's diplomatic credibility and strengthens the position of Kinshasa, which has consistently accused Kigali of supporting the M23 as a means to maintain military pressure and gain political concessions.

A Maneuver to Gain Time?

Analysts argue that Rwanda’s latest move is part of a broader strategy to delay the peace process. Journalist and political analyst Litsani Choukran remarked: "Rwanda is playing a dangerous game. By conditioning its participation in the summit on a dialogue with the M23, Kigali is implicitly acknowledging its strategic links with this armed group. This highlights a flagrant contradiction with Kagame’s previous statements. This double game weakens Rwanda’s diplomatic credibility and exposes its real objectives in the region."

By introducing this precondition, Kigali risks undermining the progress made in the Luanda Process. Mediator João Lourenço, with the backing of the African Union and the United Nations, has worked tirelessly to facilitate an agreement based on clear principles: the withdrawal of foreign forces, the neutralization of armed groups, and a pathway to peace.

The Luanda Peace Process at Risk

For the DRC, the Luanda Process represents a significant opportunity to restore stability in the Great Lakes region. However, Rwanda’s actions threaten this progress. Kinshasa remains firm, refusing any dialogue that legitimizes the M23 or allows for foreign interference. Public opinion in the DRC overwhelmingly supports this stance, with regular demonstrations denouncing Rwanda’s alleged support for the M23.

The UN Security Council is closely monitoring the situation. Analysts suggest that the international community may respond to Rwanda’s actions with binding resolutions or targeted sanctions. For Kinshasa, the postponement of the summit is viewed as a diplomatic victory, reinforcing its calls for stronger international measures against Kigali.

Conclusion

The Luanda Tripartite Summit's cancellation exposes Rwanda to mounting criticism and diplomatic isolation. By persisting with delaying tactics and indirectly supporting an armed group, Kigali risks losing regional and international allies. Meanwhile, the DRC, supported by its partners, remains resolute in its pursuit of a just and lasting peace in the Great Lakes region.[BETO.CD]