Why Botswana, South Africa and DRC matter in US rare earth race

Africa’s critical minerals sector is drawing fresh attention as concerns grow over US access to rare earths and other defence-linked materials. A new report says Washington may be facing a tight reserve position, adding urgency to efforts to diversify supply away from China.

The pressure point is not just mining output, but processing power. China remains the dominant force in rare earth refining and has tightened export controls on several materials, a shift that has deepened Western concern over strategic supply chains. USGS data and recent US policy moves both point to the same problem: the United States is still trying to build stronger buffers against disruptions in critical mineral supply.

That is where Africa enters the picture. The Democratic Republic of the Congo remains the world’s leading source of mined cobalt, accounting for roughly three quarters of global output in 2024, while South Africa has highlighted its importance in minerals such as manganese, platinum group metals and vanadium. Botswana, meanwhile, has recently attracted attention after reports of a significant rare earth discovery linked to the Gchwihaba project.

Still, the idea that Botswana, South Africa and the DRC are already effectively “on standby” for the United States goes further than the available evidence clearly shows. What is better supported is that Washington is expanding its search for alternative supply routes as it tries to reduce dependence on China, including through reserve-building efforts such as AP’s reported “Project Vault” initiative

The broader signal is clear: as competition over critical minerals intensifies, African producers are becoming more central to global industrial and security calculations. Countries with cobalt, manganese, platinum group metals and emerging rare earth projects are likely to face rising international interest as supply resilience becomes a bigger geopolitical priority. Data from the US Geological Survey also underscores how concentrated some of these supply chains remain.