Rwanda warns Mozambique mission could end as sanctions tensions grow

Rwanda has warned it could withdraw its military forces from northern Mozambique if long-term international funding for the mission is not secured, raising questions about the future of counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado province.

The warning was issued by Rwanda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Olivier J.P. Nduhungirehe, who said on social media platform X that Rwanda would withdraw its troops if sustainable financing is not guaranteed for the deployment.

“It’s not that Rwanda could withdraw, it’s that Rwanda WILL withdraw its troops from Mozambique if sustainable funding is not secured for its counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado,” the minister wrote.

The statement followed reports suggesting that European Union support through the European Peace Facility could expire in May without renewal. The EU has contributed about €20 million to support Rwanda’s military deployment.

However, Kigali says the real cost of the operation is significantly higher. Government spokesperson Yolande Makolo stated that EU funding represents only a small share of the expenses, arguing that Rwanda’s total costs are at least ten times greater.

Rwandan troops were first deployed to Mozambique in July 2021 at the request of the Mozambican government to help combat insurgent groups linked to the Islamic State in Cabo Delgado.

The initial deployment included around 1,000 soldiers and police officers. According to statements by President Paul Kagame, the force later expanded to roughly 2,000 personnel.

Rwandan officials say the intervention helped restore stability in parts of the province, allowing displaced civilians to return home, schools to reopen and economic activity to resume. Authorities also say the security improvements helped major liquefied natural gas projects restart in the region.

Large energy investments in Cabo Delgado include projects led by the French company TotalEnergies and the U.S. firm ExxonMobil, with combined investments estimated at about $50 billion.

Some analysts and opposition figures argue the mission also strengthens Rwanda’s role as a regional security partner and expands its diplomatic influence with Western governments.

The funding warning comes amid growing diplomatic tension between Rwanda and several Western partners over the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Earlier in March, the United States imposed sanctions on Rwanda’s Defence Forces and four senior generals accused of supporting the M23 rebel group operating in eastern DRC.

The Rwandan government has repeatedly denied these accusations, saying its actions are focused on protecting national security.

Speaking to diplomats in Kigali, President Kagame defended Rwanda’s security posture and said every country has the responsibility to protect its borders and citizens.

Meanwhile, the tensions appear to be extending beyond the security sphere. Rwanda’s APR Basketball Club, owned by the country’s military, recently withdrew from the upcoming season of the Basketball Africa League, a competition supported by the NBA.

Although no official explanation was provided, some local media suggested the decision could be linked to the recent U.S. sanctions targeting Rwanda’s military leadership.

Financial institutions are also closely watching the country’s economic outlook. Credit ratings agency Fitch recently revised Rwanda’s outlook from “negative” to “stable”, citing reduced uncertainty around external financing and improved diplomatic engagement.

The agency maintained Rwanda’s sovereign credit rating at “B+”.

The developments illustrate the complex position Rwanda occupies internationally as it balances its expanding regional security role with rising geopolitical tensions involving Western partners.