Rwanda warns Mozambique mission could end as sanctions tensions grow

Rwanda has warned it could withdraw its military forces from northern Mozambique if long-term international funding for the mission is not secured, raising questions about the future of counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado province.

The warning was issued by Rwanda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Olivier J.P. Nduhungirehe, who said on social media platform X that Rwanda would withdraw its troops if sustainable financing is not guaranteed for the deployment.

“It’s not that Rwanda could withdraw, it’s that Rwanda WILL withdraw its troops from Mozambique if sustainable funding is not secured for its counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado,” the minister wrote.

The statement followed reports suggesting that European Union support through the European Peace Facility could expire in May without renewal. The EU has contributed about €20 million to support Rwanda’s military deployment.

However, Kigali says the real cost of the operation is significantly higher. Government spokesperson Yolande Makolo stated that EU funding represents only a small share of the expenses, arguing that Rwanda’s total costs are at least ten times greater.

Rwandan troops were first deployed to Mozambique in July 2021 at the request of the Mozambican government to help combat insurgent groups linked to the Islamic State in Cabo Delgado.

The initial deployment included around 1,000 soldiers and police officers. According to statements by President Paul Kagame, the force later expanded to roughly 2,000 personnel.

Rwandan officials say the intervention helped restore stability in parts of the province, allowing displaced civilians to return home, schools to reopen and economic activity to resume. Authorities also say the security improvements helped major liquefied natural gas projects restart in the region.

Large energy investments in Cabo Delgado include projects led by the French company TotalEnergies and the U.S. firm ExxonMobil, with combined investments estimated at about $50 billion.

Some analysts and opposition figures argue the mission also strengthens Rwanda’s role as a regional security partner and expands its diplomatic influence with Western governments.