According to Critical Threats, the Rwandan-backed M23 rebellion is no longer just fighting battles in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The group has launched a systematic project to transform its military gains into a de facto autonomous region, effectively building a parallel state under Kigali’s influence.

A Shadow Government

M23 has created a centralized parallel administration in areas it controls, replacing Congo’s state authority with its own officials and structures. This shadow government is working to formalize control over the local economy, including critical minerals, trade routes, and infrastructure.

The rebels are also seeking to monopolize force through widespread recruitment, forced conscription, and attacks on rival armed groups. By securing towns and policing populations, M23 is attempting to present itself as a government, even though its methods violate international law and come at the expense of Congolese sovereignty.

Rwanda’s Long Hand in Congo

The roots of this project trace back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide and the subsequent Congo wars. Rwanda has consistently backed proxy militias to defend its interests in eastern DRC, including the RCD, CNDP, and now M23.

The first version of M23 captured Goma briefly in 2013 before collapsing under international pressure. But in late 2021, the group reemerged with direct Rwandan support. Since then, M23 has steadily expanded despite regional peace deals and African mediation efforts.

Expanding Control in 2025

In early 2025, after peace talks collapsed, M23, with Rwanda’s backing, launched a large-scale offensive that seized wide swathes of North and South Kivu, including the key cities of Goma and Bukavu.

By April 2025, the UN reported that M23 had doubled its territory compared to late 2024. Critical Threats estimates the group now controls about 5,800 square miles, home to five million Congolese civilians. That is roughly half the size of Belgium, with the population of Ireland.