Three Key Political Figures Threatening Ruto’s Re-Election Bid in 2027

The race for Kenya’s 2027 presidential election is taking shape, with shifting alliances and political maneuvers that could significantly impact President William Ruto’s chances of securing a second term. One of the most notable developments is the apparent collapse of the political partnership between Ruto, his former deputy Geoffrey Rigathi Gachagua, and the Mount Kenya region.

Three prominent leaders—Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Rigathi Gachagua—are emerging as major players in the evolving political landscape, and their moves could determine the outcome of the next election.

Raila Amolo Odinga – The Political Kingmaker

Former Prime Minister and ODM Party leader Raila Odinga has once again proven his influence in Kenyan politics. His role in the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, through the support of his allied lawmakers, was a major political win. This victory has strengthened his newfound relationship with President Ruto, creating speculation that Raila may back Ruto’s re-election bid.

However, history has shown that Raila is an unpredictable political strategist. A famous quote by the late Vice President Kijana Wamalwa humorously suggests that any deal with Raila should be signed in the presence of witnesses because he might change his mind at the last minute. If he decides to shift alliances before 2027, he could join forces with Kalonzo Musyoka, Gachagua, and even former President Uhuru Kenyatta to form a formidable opposition against Ruto.

Such a move would significantly shake up the election and possibly deny Ruto a second term.

Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka – The Unwavering Contender

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a long-time ally of Raila, has taken a new political path by aligning himself with Rigathi Gachagua. This unexpected partnership could lead to a major coalition before the 2027 elections. Reports indicate that former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who appears to have distanced himself from Raila, has given his blessing to this alliance.

Kalonzo has long sought the presidency, and with the combined support of Uhuru, Gachagua, and possibly Raila, he could be a serious contender in 2027. If he manages to consolidate enough backing, especially from the Mount Kenya region and his traditional Eastern strongholds, he could pose a real threat to President Ruto’s re-election.

Geoffrey Rigathi Gachagua – The Fallen Ally Turned Rival

Once seen as Ruto’s closest political partner, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua now finds himself at odds with the president. His impeachment marked a dramatic shift in the political landscape, and he has since been working to regain political ground.

With the Mount Kenya region’s support no longer guaranteed for Ruto, Gachagua is positioning himself as the leader who can bring back the region’s influence in the next election. His new alliance with Kalonzo Musyoka indicates a strong opposition movement that could challenge Ruto’s dominance. If Gachagua successfully rallies Mount Kenya behind this new coalition, it could significantly impact Ruto’s voter base.

Will Ruto Survive the 2027 Political Storm?

As the political realignments continue, President Ruto faces the challenge of maintaining his support base while countering the growing influence of Raila, Kalonzo, and Gachagua. While Ruto’s camp believes they have taken over Raila’s traditional strongholds as compensation for losing Mount Kenya, the political scene remains unpredictable.

If Raila decides to abandon his current arrangement with Ruto and instead backs Kalonzo, with the support of Gachagua and Uhuru, it could spell trouble for Ruto. In such a scenario, Kalonzo could emerge as a leading candidate with a powerful coalition behind him. This would make Ruto the first Kenyan president to serve only one term.

However, with over two years until the election, political shifts and new alliances are inevitable. The road to 2027 remains uncertain, but one thing is clear—Ruto’s political future is far from secure.