Odinga expresses confidence in winning AU chairmanship Bid

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has expressed confidence in winning the upcoming African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson election, which he believes will secure him the prestigious position on the continent.

According to Raila's campaign team, he has a strong chance of victory. African leaders will gather in Addis Ababa on February 15 and 16 to choose a successor for the outgoing chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, who has completed his two terms.

A total of 49 AU member states will participate in the election for the chairperson and deputy chairperson positions. To win in the first round, Raila needs at least 33 votes. However, six countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Niger, Gabon, and Sudan—are suspended from AU activities and will not be voting.

Elkanah Odembo, co-chair of Raila’s campaign team, mentioned that Raila has already secured support from 28 nations. However, he did not disclose specific countries, as voting will be conducted through a secret ballot.

Raila is competing against Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato. The chairperson position has been designated for the Eastern African region, while the deputy chairperson will be chosen from Northern Africa.

To win, a candidate must secure two-thirds of the votes from the AU Assembly, which consists of heads of state and government. If no candidate achieves this threshold in the first round, voting proceeds to a second round with all three candidates still in the race. The winner in this round must still secure two-thirds of the votes.

If the second round remains inconclusive, a third round will be conducted with the top two candidates from the previous vote. If no winner emerges, the fourth round will eliminate the candidate with the fewest votes, leaving only one contender. Should this candidate still fail to secure two-thirds of the vote, the election will be suspended.

In case of a suspension, the AU deputy chairperson will temporarily take over leadership until a new election is held. If the deputy chairperson position also remains vacant, the most senior commissioner—based on tenure or age—will act as the interim deputy until fresh elections take place.

Before the election of the chairperson and deputy, AU Foreign Ministers will have already selected eight commissioners for the AUC. The heads of state and government will then confirm these commissioners after electing the chair and deputy.

Odembo emphasized that Raila’s campaign team is still working hard to secure more votes. The team has adopted a three-part strategy as the election date approaches. This includes Raila and President William Ruto engaging with more African leaders, while Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi intensifies diplomatic efforts with his counterparts in Foreign Affairs.