Kenya’s Diplomatic Risk: Hosting RSF Rebels within Regional Conflicts

Kenya’s decision to host the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebel group in Nairobi on February 18 has triggered a significant diplomatic dispute. The Sudanese government strongly condemned the move, questioning Kenya’s stance in the ongoing conflict. This decision could strain Kenya’s relationships with neighboring countries and international partners, testing its role as a regional mediator.

On February 18, the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi became the venue for a controversial event, where RSF, a paramilitary group from Sudan accused of committing atrocities, reportedly planned discussions on forming a separate government. This move angered Sudan’s ruling military government, which called it an “act of hostility” and sparked concerns across the Horn of Africa.

Who are the RSF Rebels?

The RSF is led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti. The group evolved from the Janjaweed militias that were responsible for widespread violence in Darfur in the early 2000s. Established in 2013 to fight against rebel groups in Sudan, RSF has since grown into a powerful force that has been engaged in a violent conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023.

The ongoing civil war has led to over 60,000 deaths and displaced millions. The United States has sanctioned RSF for its involvement in genocide and human rights violations.

RSF’s visit to Nairobi was reportedly meant to introduce a “Political Charter for the Government of Peace and Unity.” However, the event was postponed after negotiations stalled. The RSF leadership clarified that their goal was not to establish a parallel government in Kenya but to participate in peace talks aimed at resolving Sudan’s crisis.

Ezzeldin Al Safi, RSF’s legal advisor, emphasized that any government formation would take place within Sudan and not in Kenya or any other country. He pointed out that Nairobi was chosen due to Kenya’s history of mediating peace agreements, including the 2005 North-South Sudan peace deal.

Kenya’s Role and Its Diplomatic Consequences

Kenya has previously been recognized as a regional peace facilitator, hosting significant negotiations such as the 2002 Machakos Protocol that helped end Sudan’s Second Civil War. However, by engaging with RSF, Kenya appears to be deviating from its traditionally neutral position. President William Ruto has met with Hemedti multiple times in 2023 and 2024 and also hosted RSF deputy commander Abdul Rahim Dagalo, raising concerns among Sudanese officials.

Sudan’s foreign ministry accused Kenya of endorsing RSF’s actions, warning of possible retaliatory measures, including cutting trade ties or supporting anti-Kenyan groups. Similar tensions arose in December 2023 when Kenya hosted the launch of the Congo River Alliance, which included Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seeking to overthrow the Democratic Republic of Congo’s government. That event led to a diplomatic fallout with Kinshasa, which recalled its ambassador.

Neighboring countries like Ethiopia and South Sudan, already struggling with internal conflicts, might perceive Kenya’s engagement with RSF as a dangerous precedent that could embolden rebel factions within their own territories. Sudan has also rejected Kenya’s leadership in IGAD’s mediation efforts, favoring South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir instead.

According to history and international relations expert Macharia Munene, "Clearly, this seems like a provocation, Kenya provoking the government of Sudan by hosting an anti-government movement in its capital. The implication is Kenya supports that group, and some of the things happening over Sudan. It's not a simple thing."

Possible Global Reactions

Kenya’s decision may lead to diplomatic consequences at the international level. The African Union (AU) could impose sanctions if it perceives Kenya’s actions as supporting rebellion and undermining a legitimate government.

The United States, which designated Kenya a major non-NATO ally in May 2024, has already sanctioned RSF for human rights violations. Washington might view Kenya’s engagement with RSF as undermining its policies against genocide, potentially straining U.S.-Kenya relations. The European Union could also pressure Kenya to clarify its position, while China, a key economic ally of Sudan, may oppose any move that strengthens RSF.

By engaging with RSF, Kenya may face security risks, including possible retaliation from Sudan’s military government. Sudan’s foreign ministry has hinted at “unspecified measures,” which could involve exploiting Kenya’s already vulnerable borders. Kenya continues to deal with threats from Al-Shabaab militants based in Somalia, and any further instability could strain its security forces.

RSF’s reported links to the United Arab Emirates and Libyan militias raise additional concerns about proxy conflicts spilling into Kenya. Furthermore, by hosting a group accused of war crimes, Kenya might inadvertently encourage other militias to view the country as a safe zone, potentially increasing regional instability.

Kenya’s Strategic Interests in Sudan

President Ruto has taken an active role in African diplomatic affairs, aiming to position himself as a prominent continental leader. Since taking office in September 2022, he has engaged in multiple international initiatives, including sending Kenyan police to Haiti under a UN-backed mission and advocating for Kenya’s role in major peace processes.

Munene commented on Ruto’s efforts:

There is also speculation that Kenya’s involvement with RSF might be driven by economic interests. Sudan’s gold reserves, controlled by RSF, generate substantial revenue, and there are unverified claims that certain Kenyan business entities may be looking to benefit from trade opportunities linked to these resources. Sudan has accused Kenya of trying to profit from RSF activities, although no concrete evidence has emerged to confirm these allegations.

If Kenya successfully mediates a ceasefire in Sudan, it could enhance its reputation as a regional peacemaker and potentially secure economic and political benefits.

However, if Sudan escalates diplomatic or military actions in response, Kenya could face isolation, AU sanctions, or broader instability in the region. The most likely outcome is a tense middle ground where Kenya’s relations with Sudan remain strained, international partners express muted criticism, and Kenya’s role as a peace facilitator becomes less credible.

Ultimately, Kenya’s position as a key player in East Africa’s diplomatic landscape is now uncertain. Its future will depend on how effectively it manages this fallout and whether it can reassert its role as a neutral mediator in regional conflicts.