How Raila Odinga’s AU Win Could Be a Political Game-Changer for Kenya

Bahati shalom
Jan 17, 2025

Raila Odinga the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)
ODM leader Raila Odinga has announced his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship, sparking discussions about its impact on national and regional politics. If successful, he will replace Moussa Faki Mahamat.
His candidacy raises questions about political realignments within ODM and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, where key figures like Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua may reposition themselves in his absence.
Winning the AU seat would require Odinga to step back from national politics, as the position demands neutrality. His absence could significantly affect ODM and Azimio, particularly as Kenya approaches the 2027 General Election. The AU chairperson oversees election monitoring, conflict resolution, and diplomatic engagements across the continent, limiting his involvement in domestic affairs.
Odinga’s bid has received backing from President William Ruto’s administration, including key figures such as National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wa and Public Service CS Moses Kuria. Political analysts view this as a potential truce between Odinga and Ruto, given their rivalry in the 2022 elections. East Africa has yet to secure this position, making Odinga’s candidacy a strategic opportunity for the region.
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His exit from active politics could reshape Kenya’s political landscape, with figures like Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua positioning themselves for leadership roles in Azimio.
ODM may also see new contenders emerge, including former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho. While some argue Odinga’s influence will persist regardless of his formal position, his departure may trigger internal realignments within ODM and Azimio as the country prepares for 2027.