The Burundi Bwa Bose coalition, initially formed by Frodebu, FDES-Sangira, CNDD, and Codebu parties, is falling apart ahead of the 2025 legislative elections. The alliance has decided to move forward without Agathon Rwasa and his followers after a decision by Burundi’s Constitutional Court.

Court Ruling Creates Tensions

On January 7, 2025, the Constitutional Court ruled on election disputes, including complaints about rejected candidate lists by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). The Court granted political parties and coalitions three days to reorganize their lists and comply with legal requirements. Specifically, it directed the Burundi Bwa Bose coalition to remove members of the CNL party from its candidate lists, as the CNL was not officially part of the coalition.

The ruling was signed by the Court President Valentin Bagorikunda, Vice-President Emmanuel Ntahomvukiye, and other officials. Observers view the decision as both a challenge and an opportunity for the coalition.

Coalition Moves Forward Without Rwasa

Patrick Nkurunziza, the coalition’s president, confirmed that they will continue in the elections without the CNL. “We accept the Court’s decision and will participate in the elections, even if it means winning only a small percentage of votes,” he said. However, he also dismissed claims that the coalition is collaborating with the ruling party, an accusation that has circulated in political circles.

Internal divisions have worsened the coalition's troubles. Sources close to the group reveal disagreements between members over whether Rwasa should have joined the alliance. Some leaders reportedly opposed his inclusion from the start, citing strategic differences.

Rwasa’s camp responded sharply to the coalition's decision, instructing its members to avoid working with the coalition. “We will not include Inyankamugayo (Rwasa’s supporters) on our lists,” replied coalition leaders, signaling the definitive end of their alliance.

Struggles of the Coalition

Political analysts note that one of the coalition’s weaknesses lies in its lack of strong support among voters. While its members have come together to form an alliance, the parties—Frodebu, Codebu, CNDD, and FDES-Sangira—are not seen as having significant grassroots influence.

Some insiders suggest that the coalition’s struggles began as soon as plans to form a broad alliance were announced. Disputes and mistrust among party members have further weakened the group, making it difficult to present a unified front.

CENI’s Role and Future Implications

The CENI's rejection of certain candidate lists played a key role in triggering the coalition’s collapse. In a recent press briefing, CENI President Prosper Ntahorwamiye stated that Rwasa had only one option left—to officially withdraw from the CNL if he wished to participate under the coalition.

Despite these challenges, Kefa Nibizi, the coalition’s secretary-general, expressed optimism, saying the group remains open to participating in the elections. “We are not giving up,” he said, emphasizing their determination to stay in the race.

As the 2025 elections approach, the Burundi Bwa Bose coalition faces significant hurdles, but its leaders remain adamant about moving forward, even without the support of Rwasa and his followers.